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Sea Kayak Trips Bulletin Board
Re: Weather interpretation
Posted By: Shawn Baker In Response To: Weather interpretation (Laura Hysen)
Date: Tuesday, 6 July 1999, at 6:25 p.m.
> My husband & I have pretty different views on what is considered an
> adventure but we are both curious as to how a more experienced kayaker
> might have interpreted a particular weather forecast. We were doing a 4.5
> mile crossing with a report of 1-3 foot waves, winds 10-20 knots, and
> scattered storms; the sky was dark and moody and the waves seemed much
> larger (maybe up to 4 ft at times) to me than 1-3 feet (in short I was
> quite uncomfortable paddling in this)From the weather report, I would certainly not expect a sunny-day paddle! I would also concentrate on the worst ends of the forecast spectrum: 3 foot waves and 20 knot winds don't sound like a very fun crossing. 4 ft. waves locally could probably be expected when the forecast calls for up to 3-footers. I am an intermediate paddler; 4 ft. waves are a lot of fun near shore, but a 4.5 mile crossing in them would scare me.
>The bottom line: I feel that this
> weather report contains a high amount of variablity and although no severe
> weather was forcasted the weather could have still worsened locally to a
> degree that may have posed a problem/challenge for beginner/intermediate
> paddlers. Obviusly I work from a cautious playing field! My knowlege of
> weather patterns has strengthend my instincts on how quickly forecasts can
> change. In short, do you wait it out or just go for it?!A forecast is no more than a "generally" scientific prediction--the forecast doesn't sound much different than what you actually experienced. Working from your cautious playing field is probably the safest choice, but the decision to "wait it out or go for it" depends on your skill as paddler(s) (based on the weakest paddler), how everyone is feeling (healthy and rested, or not), and how much you choose to trust your local weatherperson.
There was an excellent article on the Wavelength online magazine...lemme see if I can dig up a link...
Shawn
Link to article "The Go / No Go Decision"
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