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Sea Kayaks Techniques Bulletin Board
Re: Toronto Island weather forecasts ... continued
Posted By: Craig Wyllie In Response To: Toronto Island weather forecasts ... continued (Pamela)
Date: Sunday, 28 May 2006, at 1:16 p.m.
: Here's an update on the Toronto Island Airport forecast situation.
:...
: This evening, when I checked the forecast, the Toronto Island Airport weather
: had a forecast of gust speeds as well as base wind speeds. Perhaps EC has
: finally got the message!Good job, you're right, they need to be much more responsible - if they've got a page that says if's all full of information for the Island (and it's surroundings) - and it's NOT - I betcha someday they could be held liable for that. I mean if anyone in Canada is supposed to be providing accurate weather information so people don't get hurt, it's them.
None-the-less, I wouldn't trust Environment Canada for something so critically related to safety with a 10 foot pole. Even today looking at the "forecast" for the Toronto Island Airport, one part of the page says "26 dec C high" while clearly in the text it says "except along the lake" - they're still mixing "inland forecasts" with "on-water realtime data".
Relying on them for wind and wave forecasts for the shoreline is ... asking for trouble. There are MUCH more useful forecasts available - look at the following: http://blacktower.dyndns.org/kayak/weather/index.html - I've found the wind and wave graphic predictions to be bang on over the past few years.
Note that the page starts out at an arbitrary base GMT (which may be 0-12 hours in the past, since the forecast is only computed twice a day), which means you have to step forward into the future and convert GMT to your local time.
And again, note that this stuff isn't "man critical safe". The only thing that is guaranteed to be accurate are official marine forecasts (final link on that page - which is for Buffalo, not Toronto, so I'm unsure - but it seems to be more useful that the EC marine forecast http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/marine/marine_e.html?45135).
PS: 30km/h is the absolute TOP END of what novices can handle, and even in those conditions they need more experienced people with them. You went out in conditions which gave you zero margin for error in terms of weather changes.
http://blacktower.dyndns.org/kayak/Sea_Kayaking_Skill_Level_vs_wave_wind.pdf
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