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Sea Kayaks Techniques Bulletin Board
Toronto Island weather forecasts ... continued
Posted By: Pamela
Date: Saturday, 9 November 2002, at 7:46 p.m.
Here's an update on the Toronto Island Airport forecast situation.
I wrote Environment Canada because the wind forecasts for the airport (which is right on the inner harbour) were running as much as 25 km/hr below the actual conditions. This is the reply from EC:
>In order to clarify the situation, the
>Meteorological Service of Canada in Ontario Region does not issue a
>separate/distinct public forecast for Toronto Island. The public forecast
>that is posted on the Toronto Island forecast page is identical to the
>public forecast issued for the City of Toronto. The reason that the Island
>has its own forecast page is because it has its own observation point (the
>Island Airport observation site vs. Pearson International Airport's
>observation site which is used to provide the observed weather on the City
>of Toronto forecast page). Therefore the winds that you are seeing in the
>Toronto Island forecast are winds that are expected to be representative of
>what will occur within the city itself, not the inner harbour. In many
>cases, in order to get a representative idea of what the wind conditions
>would be near Toronto Island or in the inner harbour, an intermediate value
>between the marine forecast for Western Lake Ontario and the inland City of
>Toronto forecast winds should be used.There seemed to be a huge logic gap in this response, so I sent another e-mail to the good meteorologists. (BTW, if you don't know Toronto, Pearson International Airport is quite distant from the lake.)
Here's what I wrote:
"It sounds as though you are saying that because the Meteorological Service has a weather observation post at the Island Airport, it's OK to issue an Island Airport forecast with wind values that may or may not apply there and viewers will know to take that forecast with a grain of salt -- even though there is nothing within the forecast or the site to alert them to the fact they are reading a GTA forecast.
"May I suggest a different viewpoint.
"Because there are two apparently different forecasts listed for the Toronto area, namely Toronto and Toronto Island Airport, viewers are going to assume that they are different and that the one for the Island Airport reflects the winds that could be encountered in the harbour -- since the airport is right beside the harbour. The marine forecast says specifically that forecast wind speeds are for mid-lake; anyone looking at the two forecasts might reasonably assume that the difference was the difference between centre-lake winds and shore winds, rather than centre-lake winds and inland winds.
"I feel strongly that there should be something in the Island Airport forecast to let viewers know they are reading an inland forecast and they need to check the marine forecast as well. Given the number of sailors, canoers and kayakers -- many of them novices -- who use the harbour, I believe you have a responsibility to let these people know if the forecast you post does not reflect possible wind levels (or any other meteorological data) in the area of the Island Airport. Even better would be a forecast specifically for the harbour.
"We were kayaking recently when the forecast said 30 km/hr winds for the Island Airport. The least-experienced paddler in our group capsized in the wind; we found out afterwards the wind was actually 46 km/hr. (Fortunately, our group practices rescues and the capsized paddler was back in his boat in short order.) If he had known the winds were going to be that high, he would have stayed on shore.
"Given a less experienced group, our kayaking day could have had a disastrous ending.
"And that is why I encourage you to make it clear that your wind forecasts are inland forecasts, or issue forecasts specifically for the Island Airport."
***************
This evening, when I checked the forecast, the Toronto Island Airport weather had a forecast of gust speeds as well as base wind speeds. Perhaps EC has finally got the message!
Pamela
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